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Matt's thoughts on redistricting - - promoted from the diaries by Rosi
I don't know what anyone else in the Blue Jersey community thinks, but I know nothing aggravates me more in New Jersey politics than the configuration of our current Congressional and Legislative Districts. If one were to Google Incumbent Protection Plan - New Jersey should be at the top of the list. Democrats and Republicans share the blame on this matter. Legislators cut deals all over the State to make their districts safer - and we should not let that happen again in 2010.
Competitive elections are the bedrock of effective and accountable representation. We need more "toss up" Senate and Assembly races up and down the State so that legislators are governing and serving the best interests of their constituents, and not best interests of corporate lobbyists and political insiders. I will address the political implications that will arise (for example 2 incumbent Senators from varying or like parties falling in the same district), but will not make political circumstances the basis for my analysis.
So in the interest of creating a more effective, and more importantly, more democratic, State Legislature, I am going to propose hypothetical legislative districts. My formula will be simple: New Jersey's population is approximately 8,682,661 people; therefore, each district should have roughly 217,067 people in them. Secondly, I will make every effort to keep municipalities together within a County - it makes sense from a logical and logistical standpoint. Finally, I will not breakup any cities or towns into separate districts. Democrats effectively broke up Newark and Jersey City during the last go round, and even though my party benefited from it, I still think it is wrong.
Some other notable points in how I will come about developing a hypothetical district: I will make every attempt to keep like communities together. For example, my hometown of Wanaque shares a regional high school with neighboring Ringwood; as such, there is no reason why we shouldn't share our State Senator and Assembly members. I will make every attempt to make as many districts as possible competitive and will only be looking at Bergen, Essex, Hudson, and Passaic counties in a vacuum-I don't know enough about local politics and municipalities in the other counties, so I wouldn't be able to render a fair assessment like I can for the aforementioned counties. Therefore, I will only be creating hypothetical districts for LD27 through LD40 (while plucking the Passaic towns from LD26 and excluding LD30, which for whatever reason is listed with North Jersey legislative districts). |
| Author's note: I am using Wikipedia as my basis for the populations of towns and cities, not the best source, but by far the easiest. Since I will be building 13 hypothetical districts, I will do them in 3 installments, covering LD27-LD32 (again excluding LD30) in this diary, LD33-LD36 in a second diary, and LD37-LD40 in a final diary.
Hypothetical 27th District
Newark, population 281,402.
Easy enough right? Newark goes over the approximate number I'm shooting for in each district by about 60,000 people, but I still think keeping the city together is more important than hitting the number exactly. I hear detractors saying that keeping it as 1 district suppresses minority representation, but I disagree. The districts around Newark share like demographics and I don't think it will adversely effect the racial makeup of the State Legislature.
Safe Democratic
Politically, having Newark as one district becomes very, very tricky (and probably infeasible). According to the New Jersey Legislature website, 2 Senators are from Newark: Ronald Rice and Teresa Ruiz. It will be a familiar primary battle for Rice, who is often pitted against a machine candidate. In the Assembly Albert Couthino, L. Grace Spencer, and Cleopatra Tucker would have to face off in a primary for the 2 Assembly seats.
Hypothetical 28th District
Jersey City, population 240,055.
Isn't this so simple? I am applying the same standard as I did for Newark, keeping the what is projected to be the largest city in New Jersey as 1 district. Politically this is much more feasible than Newark. Sandra Cunningham is the only Senator from Jersey City, and both Assembly candidates this year, Jersey City Police Detective Charles Mainor and incumbent Joan Quigley are the only Assembly members in the the 3 districts Jersey City currently spans from the city.
Safe Democratic
Hypothetical 29th District
City of Orange, population 32,868;
East Orange, population 69,824;
Irvington, population 60,695;
South Orange, population 16,964;and
West Orange, population 44,943.
Total = 225,294
The Hypothetical 29th District I would nickname the "Orange District," as it would encompass the City of Orange, East Orange, South Orange, and West Orange. The district is just about perfect as far as population and politically this could work out very well. Three Assembly members, Sheila Oliver, John McKeon, and Mila M. Jasey all live in this hypothetical district, but no State Senator. Therefore, an easy political deal could be worked out to allow one member to move up to the State Senate.
Safe Democratic
Hypothetical 31st District
Bloomfield, population 47,683;
Caldwell, population 7,584
Cedar Grove, population 12,300;
Essex Fells, population 2,162;
Fairfield, population 7,063;
Glen Ridge, population 7,271;
Livingston, population 27, 391;
Maplewood, population 23,868;
Millburn, population 19,765;
Montclair, population 38,977;
North Caldwell, population 7,375;
Roseland, population 5,298;
West Caldwell, population 11,233;and
Verona, population 13,533.
Total = 231,503
The population works out to be very close to my initial number. This would be a competitive and hotly contested State Senate and Assembly race. The incumbents would be Senate President Dick Codey of Roseland, Senator Nia Gill of Montclair, and Senator Kevin O'Toole of Cedar Grove. One Assembly seat is occupied by Thomas Giblin and the other would be open. Codey would never want a district this competitive, but I have my money on Codey serving out his last 2 years of his term as Senate President (yes he will be Senate President if he wants to be, no one can out fox Dick Codey, not even George Norcross) and then retiring. So I will go out on a limb and predict it will be a contested Senate seat by the time 2011 rolls around with Nia Gill facing off against Kevin O'Toole. There are a lot of towns that could go either way in this hypothetical district, which makes me think the best person would win the race, not the best politician. O'Toole has a lot of cross-over appeal too, especially in emerging Asian-American communities, don't count him out of a hypothetical race against Gill just because of Montclair.
Toss Up
Hypothetical 32nd District
Belleville, population 35, 928;
Clifton, population 78,672;
Nutley, population 30,362;and
Passaic, population 67,681.
Total = 212,643
This would be a very interesting district (and the first of my districts that crosses county borders). The 212,643 is again close to the median number I started with. Belleville, Clifton, and Nutley are all very, very similar towns - can you say Italian-American? Bellevile leans Democratic, but not by much. Clifton is a nonpartisan town and is a well known battleground in Passaic County on the local and countywide level. Passaic is a strong Democratic town and Nutley leans Republican. When it is all said and done, this could be an interesting race.
The incumbents would be Assemblymen Gary Schaer and Ralph Caputo. If the Republicans could recruit an Italian-American with high name ID (a former Majority Leader from Nutley comes to mind) this could be a race.
Leans Democratic
For the next 6 districts I will have to cross county lines more often, simply because there isn't enough people. Keep in mind I am trying to accomplish 3 main goals: keeping towns that share borders and counties together, making districts more competitive, and not splitting any cities (basically Newark or Jersey City).
So what do you think Blue Jersey? Is my plan feasible thus far or I am a partisan hack? |
