Blue Jersey BlogTalkRadio: Election '07 - Predictions Week!

jeff van drew wins... (0.00 / 0)

....by 7 percentage points.  that's the onl prediction i am gonna make for today.

activist for hire.

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by: Jay Lassiter @ Sat Nov 03, 2007 at 09:39:11 AM CDT

Jim Whelan in a walk (0.00 / 0)

If not double digits, then by 9 pts.

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by: Jeff Gardner @ Sat Nov 03, 2007 at 09:43:08 AM CDT

I missed calling in on the show by 10 minutes (4.00 / 1)

So instead, I'll post my predictions here:

State Senate:
District 1 - Van Drew by 8
District 2 - Whelan by 5
District 7 - Allen by 16
District 8 - Haines by 6
District 12 - Karcher by 2 (the polling I've seen shows her barely ahead - it'll come down to turnout)
District 13 - Kyrillos by 5 (I can't believe we didn't invest there)
District 14 -  Baroni by 14
District 21 - Kean, Jr. by 8
District 25 - Bucco by 12
District 29 - Ruiz first, Payne second, Caraballo third
District 36 - Sarlo by 15
District 38 - Gordon by 20+
District 39 - No comment (Conflict of interest)

Overall Change: Democrats + 2

State Assembly:
District 1 - Albano and Milam
District 2- Amadeo and Polistina
District 7 - Conners and Conaway
District 8 - Fifis and Rudder
District 11 - I see the Democrats winning 1 seat here in an upset, with Napolitani Sr. beating Rible, and joining Angelini in the Assembly
District 12 - Panter and O'Scanlon
District 14 - Greenstein and Bushman
District 16 - While it will be closer than expected, Coyle and Biondi will win. Look for Will Kole to finish 3rd to Coyle.
District 25 - Again, closer than expected, but Carroll and Merkt will be reelected.
District 39 - Fletcher will oust Rooney, and will join Vandervalk in the Assembly.

Overall Change: + 1 Democrats


"We are the leaders we've been waiting for." - Paul Wellstone

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by: MrLiberal @ Sat Nov 03, 2007 at 11:33:55 AM CDT

Caraballo third? (0.00 / 0)

Huh? Do you mean Quintana?

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by: Jeff Gardner @ Sat Nov 03, 2007 at 17:14:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yes, my mistake (0.00 / 0)

I did mean Quintana. And yes, that also means the Republican will finish 4th.

"We are the leaders we've been waiting for." - Paul Wellstone

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by: MrLiberal @ Sat Nov 03, 2007 at 17:33:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

an ode to RuPaul (0.00 / 0)

Did anyone notice?

activist for hire.

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by: Jay Lassiter @ Sat Nov 03, 2007 at 14:32:12 PM CDT

predictions (4.00 / 1)

Van Drew & Whelan both win easily as Democrats expand their Senate majority, but Republicans gain a seat in the assembly; Janice Michelle Mintz loses to Brian Hughes in Mercer County by at least 40; the Virginia State Senate is tied 20-20.

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by: Scott Weingart @ Sat Nov 03, 2007 at 19:49:30 PM CDT

also (0.00 / 0)

Melonie Marano wins by 1,000 votes.

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by: Scott Weingart @ Sat Nov 03, 2007 at 19:52:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

virginia and NJ (0.00 / 0)

we do seem to be linked with the Virginians on our of year election years. anyone know what put us and them in the same (offyear) boat?

and you say the Virginia state senate will be tied at 20 apiece?  does that represent movement leftward? 

activist for hire.

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by: Jay Lassiter @ Sun Nov 04, 2007 at 06:23:47 AM CST

[ Parent ]

re (4.00 / 1)

I can think of a couple reasons why VA and NJ might hold elections in off years: first, to help boost turnout in those elections; second, to prevent federal electoral politics from excessively influencing the results of state elections.

Right now, the VA senate is 23-17 Republican.  Only one Democrat, Chuck Colgan of Prince William County, is vulnerable.  Republicans must defend several open seats caused by retirement and successful primary challenges.  They must also defend three incumbents in increasingly Democratic Fairfax County.  Also, Tim Kaine, Mark Warner and Jim Webb have been invaluable assets for Democratic campaigns across the state.

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by: Scott Weingart @ Sun Nov 04, 2007 at 07:49:27 AM CST

[ Parent ]