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Ferguson Will Not Challenge Lautenberg

by: JRB

Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 01:16:44 PM EST



Via PoliticsNJ:
Rep. Michael Ferguson has ruled out a bid for U.S. Senate against Frank Lautenberg. Chris Jones, Ferguson's Chief of Staff, says that the 36-year-old Ferguson will positively not run for statewide office in 2008, and will seek re-election to a fifth term in the House. State Sen. Thomas Kean, Jr., Assemblyman Bill Baroni and Assemblyman Michael Doherty are viewed as the most likely contenders for the nomination to challenge Lautenberg, who will be 84 when he seeks his fifth term.
And Wally Edge says don't count Kean Jr back in it so soon.
Had Ferguson lost to Stender, or had he run for the U.S. Senate, there was a good chance that State Senator Thomas Kean, Jr. would have run for the House instead. (He finished second in the 2000 primary, behind Ferguson.) Now the 38-year-old Kean must decide whether he is willing to chance a second statewide loss (something that usually signals the end of a political career) by running against Lautenberg -- or even against the more conservative rivals in a contested Republican primary.
So, it's down to Baroni and Doherty. Any other strong contenders?
JRB :: Ferguson Will Not Challenge Lautenberg
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Most of the other big names are looking to 2009 (0.00 / 0)
John Murphy will run for governor in 2009, and Chris Christie will do the same (if he runs for anything).

Frank Lobiondo has the money to run for Senate but would he really give up a safe Congressional seat to challenge an incumbent Senator?  Even if he does run, he's too socially conservative for NJ voters to send him to Washington.

I'd love to see Mike Doherty get the GOP nod.


Don't count on Baroni (0.00 / 0)
Baroni would make a strong GOP candidate -- a throwback to older Millicent Fenwick/Jacob Javitz Republicanism that no longer exists, even in New Jersey. But I just don't see it happening -- not yet, anyway. In 2008, he'll be in just his fifth year in the Assembly (assuming he wins next year), has bucked his party often and might have difficulties attracting enough GOP support in a primary. I'd bet on someone else, someone from one of the leadership spots or someone like (but not) Doug Forrestor who has no connection to the state party.



Disagree (0.00 / 0)
I could see Baroni winning the primary but losing thegeneral. Republicans are so hungry for a win right now, they could hold their noses on some of Baroni's positions if they think he's the best to take down Lautenberg. He'd do well in a general election, but that 'R' next to his name will probably sink him.

[ Parent ]
Oh Dear. (0.00 / 0)
The thought of Mike "Capt. Slit Trench" Doherty running for the US Senate just promises so much rich comedy gold.

Out here in Warren, he is simply the mystery man. He pops up very infrequently, to no apparent constructive effect. He does ably piss people off, however. He's great at that.

Oh please, Bergen Dems! Trot out the Doherty stories. Just because he came out here from Bergen, when the Republicans wouldn't let him run for anything there, doesn't mean you should ignore him. If he runs, Club for Growth and National Right to Life are gonna cash him up but good.


The nom de plume has a long and distinguished history.


Is Ferguson afraid that he would lose ? (0.00 / 0)
I'm curious whether there are any opinions out there regarding WHY Ferguson decided not to run for the US Senate in 2008.

After seeing Junior get beat, and considering that Ferg is more conservative than Junior, perhaps Ferg knows that he would be clobbered in a statewide election?  Outside the cozy confines of the 7th, he would face some very tough questioning.  He's a weak debater and he blandly recites Bush talking points.  Ferg knows that Bush is poison in NJ, and Bush will still be in the White House in November 2008. 

Ferguson's wingnut positions on several issues would be placed under a microscope and broadcast far and wide.  And a defeat wouldn't do much for the momentum of his political career.


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