Frelinghuysen Will Definitely Not Go Unchallenged

What else do we know about Wyka? (0.00 / 0)

Is he a serious candidate--unlike Rodney's last few opponents, who were basically underfunded clowns?  Will he have DCCC support?  This cycle may be the best chance we'll ever have to get rid of the empty suit known as Rodney Frelinghuysen, so if this Wyka is just playing a Dennis Kucinich-like role, let's keep looking.

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by: lonemorriscodem @ Tue Feb 14, 2006 at 18:17:49 PM CST

"Morris County - the next Bergen County?" (0.00 / 0)

Morris is very unlikely to realign in the near future.  What people seem to forget about Bergen's miraculous realignment during the late 90's/early 00's was that, first and foremost, Bergen had, if not majority Dem registration, an equal split between the two parties.  So the migration into Bergen from urban centers is only reinforcing a traditional trend.  Morris, while the beneficiary of urban migration, is still a majority Republican registration county, IIRC.

Bergen's real problem was an anemic and structurally unsound Democratic organization that couldn't get its base to the polls.  The Schuber machine was extremely efficient at getting its base out and convincing Reagan Democrats to vote for its candidates.  The turning point was the election of Joe Ferriero as County Chair, at which point the turn around was almost immediate.  He fixed the organization, got Freeholders elected almost immediately, and brought the Reagan Dems back into the fold and convinced socially liberal leaners in the swing area (Paramus, etc) that divides Republican North Bergen and Democratic South Bergen to vote for Democrats, transforming the county in less than a decade.  He was also efficient at matching, then crushing, Republicans at the money game, which is an enormously important aspect of Bergen's emergence as a strong Democratic county.

Morris doesn't have the underlying Democratic structure yet.  It'll need a strong organization that can compete dollar-for-dollar with the Republicans, and it'll need more Democratic voters, plain and simple. Then, as long as the 11th CD remains mostly situated in Morris, Democrats can take it.  Bergen Dems could take out Garrett if half of his district weren't outside of Bergen, I reckon.  It'd be an uphill battle, but it might be possible.  Since the 11th CD is essentially a countywide position in Morris, if Morris swung Democratic, an open seat would be winnable for Democrats (I doubt Frelinghuysen is going to be taken out, regardless of how strong the Democratic organization is; he's got inertia on his side, and even if Morris eventually realigns, he'll be safe for a few extra years after realignment).

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by: sucopsucoh @ Wed Feb 15, 2006 at 09:41:22 AM CST

Morris County voting trends (0.00 / 0)

As someone who has been active in Morris County Democratic Politics for about 12 years, the county does remain overwhelmingly republican, but each year it does get a little bit more Democratic.  In about 10-20 years, the county will be a swing county or even lean Democratic.  Most of the new voters moving into the county come from Passaic, Bergen, Union, Hudson, Middlesex or big cities, also there are increasingly large immigrant communities in Dover and Morristown (Latino) and Parsippany (Asian) Just so you get the idea the way the county is trending:

Morris County Results:
Reagan 75% Mondale 25%
Bush Sr 70%  Dukakis 30%
Bush Sr 51%  Clinton 33%  Perot 15%
Dole 57%  Clinton 42%
Bush 56%  Gore 44%
Bush 56%  Kerry 44%

I'm guessing that in 2008, the result in Morris will likely be 54%(R)
46% (D).  Based on the slow but steady increase in D voters.

Also worth noting is that the Freeholder race in Morris in 2005 was Wefer (D) 42% to Nordstrom (R) 58%.

In terms of either Tom Wyka or Jack Hartford's chances of knocking off Frelinghuysen.  Its very unlikely to happen just to be realistic.  That said, Look for Democrats to get 35%-40% of the vote this time against Frelinghuysen, higher than they have traditionally recieved.

In conclusion, Morris and the 11th District are changing, at a slow steady pace, so the county will likely be swing or Democratic in the future, but it most likely will take 10 years


"the Blue underground in Red Morris"

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by: BootGOP @ Wed Feb 15, 2006 at 12:23:24 PM CST

unlikely (0.00 / 0)

I will eat my hat if Wyka manages to get more than 45% of the vote, let alone wins. Face it, folks, it's a district the Republicans have held since time immemorial, and getting our hopes up is just going to hurt. I applaud him for trying, but don't expect too much.

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by: teferi @ Wed Feb 15, 2006 at 17:09:34 PM CST

What kind of hat? (0.00 / 0)

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by: blue7thpac @ Tue Feb 28, 2006 at 11:05:29 AM CST

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