A possible scandal- the high road taken (ooooh, that wasn't too smart, "Longshot"). http://theessentialsteinforcon... A truck for auction on ebay....http://theessentialsteinforcongress2010.com/Auction_News.html....19 bids, and going nowhere- because car enthusiasts are broke- like the rest of us.
Next, a very unusual contest in which voters can enter to win a rugged, mans table lamp...
http://theessentialsteinforcon... And a letter to the editor....
The Democrat running against incumbent U.S. Rep. Frank LoBiondo, R-2nd, criticized LoBiondo's decision to vote against emergency federal funding to boost jobs for teachers...
In a written statement, Stein said, "LoBiondo has got to be feeling very uncomfortable now that he has voted to abandon his unionized supporters, because there are more teachers than Tea Party activists in the 2nd District."
Preach on, Stein! Oh wait...
Gary Stein, of Mullica Township, says he would have voted the same way.
You can't imagine how depressing this is. I blame party bosses for not recruiting even a symbolic candidate.
Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com has just introduced his new "Partisan Propensity Index" (PPI). If you've been following elections closely, you're probably already familiar with the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) from Cook, and similar statistics from Swing State Project. Cook's idea is to look at how each Congressional District voted for President compared to the nationwide average. So, for example, the NJ5 district (Garrett's) is rated R+7, meaning it voted 7 points more Republican than nationwide, while NJ13 (Sire's) is rated D+21. You can see why Democrats had such a hard time even with a good candidate against Garrett, and why Republicans didn't seriously contest NJ13 when Menendez left it. Unlike Congressional races, where often one candidate is hardly covered in the news and has hardly any campaign budget, the two party's Presidential candidates are well known. The PVI index is widely used to identify competitive districts.
Here's Silver's idea:
Are there any systematic differences in the ways that votes tend to fall for the Congress, as opposed to the Presidency? Are certain districts better or worse for Democrats, or Republicans, than PVI alone would suggest?
It turns out that there's one other factor which is fairly useful to look at, which is socioeconomic status. Relative to how they do for the Presidency, Democrats are somewhat more likely to win races for Congress in poorer districts, and somewhat more likely to lose them in wealthier ones. Another way to put this is that a split ticket of Republican for President, Democrat for Congress is more likely to occur in a poor district, whereas a split ticket of Democrat for President, Republican for Congress is more likely to occur in a wealthy one.
Click through for the statistical analysis he uses. Silver expresses his PPI index as the chance for Democrats to win an open seat in an average election cycle, based solely on two factors: the recent Presidential Vote and the percentage of the population with incomes under $25,000/yr. Here are the results for New Jersey:
District
Name
PVI
PPI
NJ11
Frelinhguysen
R+7
2.5%
NJ5
Garrett
R+7
3.2%
NJ4
Smith
R+6
10.9%
NJ7
Lance
R+3
13.9%
NJ3
Adler
R+1
27.9%
NJ12
Holt
D+5
62.9%
NJ2
LoBiondo
D+1
66.0%
NJ6
Pallone
D+8
85.2%
NJ9
Rothman
D+9
88.8%
NJ8
Pascrell
D+10
96.6%
NJ1
Andrews
D+12
97.0%
NJ13
Sires
D+21
99.95%
NJ10
Payne
D+33
99.998%
The main lesson, if you take this ratings seriously, is that New Jersey's wealth makes the battleground Congressional districts lean Republican compared to how they vote at the Presidential level. In many states, the R+3 and even the R+7 districts have a great chance of going Democratic at the Congressional level, but here NJ5 and NJ7 are actually quite unfavorable, and should vote for the House like R+14 districts in the rest of the country. When we evaluate how our candidates did, it's worth keeping this effect in mind.
Frank LoBiondo's district is the poorest in New Jersey, and by this measure is slightly better for Democrats than Holt's district, but we are stuck with the echo of 1994. In case it's not obvious, being an incumbent matters, scandals matter, and cycles can be more or less Republican than the average cycle, and you should always remember that the most likely outcome doesn't always happen. All of our 2010 races have incumbents so the percentages definitely do not apply. Also, this is the last election in the current districts.
Frank LoBiondo is doing his best to avoid a primary challenge from the teabaggers and probably spit out his coffee when he read in the Atlantic City Press that he had taken sides in who the Cape May Republican committee should support for Freeholder. Before the fire got to hot, LoBiondo sent out a letter to members of the Republican Party denying reports of the endorsement:
The Press of Atlantic City reported that Freeholder Director Beyel said I endorsed John McCann ("Beyel said U.S. Rep Frank LoBiondo, R-2nd, also endorses the slate"). THIS IS NOT ACCURATE.
I was not part of the decision making process by the Cape May County Republican organization. I was not asked for my opinion nor consulted with in any discussions concerning the party's decision not to endorse Jerry at any time.
Once I found out about it as the rest of you did, I made it clear I would not be involved in the committee preference vote process.
But now it is being reported that I am. I AM NOT.
You have to love the strategic use of capitalization for emphasis. The Democrats don't have a challenger yet, so as long as he can avoid a primary, its a pretty clear path to two more years. He's already got incoming fire from his own side of the aisle and is trying to keep his profile as low as possible.
I do not think Leonard Lance can be beaten in a Republican Primary. Even if David Larsen won, he would be cut out in redistricting in 2012."
Doherty's statement is sure to anger some of the same people that put him in office, but his decision seems to be more about is own political standing and thinking Lance is the safe bet so it's better to keep his powder dry in this one. Larsen will need to raise some seed money to show people he's serious and not just looking to loan his campaign money for the effort. I'm told that Lance won't be the only Republican to get a challenge from the tea party crowd as someone may run against Frank Lobiondo.
Then in the seats held by Democrats, there are a few primary races to run against the Incumbent. There are numerous candidate running in the 3rd district and Justin Murphy could also get support from the tea partiers as he runs again this year. There is also the primary to run against Rush Holt as Mike Halfacre and Scott Sipprelle will face off in a right v. further right battle and there may be more candidates to jump in the race. Assemblywoman Mary Pat Angelini and others have expressed interest in challenging to run against Frank Pallone as well. The tea partiers are even saying they may put someone up against Scott Garrett from the right, if that's possible in comments to stories that are being written. The amount of candidate running in GOP primaries can be seen as an indication of the enthusiasm and also anger out there with the public right now, who only want to see 8% of incumbent re-elected right now.
By contrast, the Democrats in New Jersey don't seem to like primaries as much. The only primary challenge I've seen so far is one against John Adler, but his warchest will make that an uphill climb. I know inside political circles they tend to shy away from primaries, because it makes you spend resources you want to conserve for the general election battle and take stands you often don't want to defend. But sometimes primaries can better prepare candidates for the trial by fire that is a general election campaign. Even if the GOP candidates don't win their primary challenges, the incumbents will already be in campaign mode given the voter angst right now. The competitive primaries to challenge Democratic incumbents will season them for the rigors of a race. With the climate and public opinion where it is, it's important that candidates don't wait to start their campaigns and these primaries insure that the GOP won't.
How does Frank LoBiondo win in landslides every two years? He's just an average legislator as far as I can tell. He says working behind the scenes is good for the 2nd district. In all the years I've been watching the news I've never once seen him on cable tv even standing in one of those small groups of his peers backing up another legislator. Frank might call it grandstanding; I think he has in so many words. I'm not sure if he means taking a stand or publicly supporting somebody who has?
But guess what? Anonymity is very effective at getting elected in this district- as long as you bring a few earmarks. I'm a Republican for a few more days and then it's over to city hall to change my registration to Democrat. I voted for Frank at least 6 times. Being fiscally conservative isn't enough for me anymore and Frank stinks on the social issues which are equally important to me. Truth be told, I thought at one time Frank was fiscally conservative; actually, he manages to bungle conservative economic theory if you look closely at his votes and his statements afterwards. Times are changing, we are in deep doo doo and wishy washy doesn't cut it anymore with me. I'm going to get the signatures required and run in the Democratic primary. I'm actually socially very liberal so I see nothing phony about re-registering. And if Jeff Van Drew isn't aware of Franks inconsistencies and sees the vulnerability, then I as a former Republican will try and point them out. Will anybody listen? We'll see, I don't have any money to run a campaign, just lots of passion. That's never been enough....until maybe 2010. It wasn't enough in 2008 when I ran as an Independent and couldn't even use a computer properly. As I said this is 2010 and I'm hoping there's an intersection now of true voter disgust, and some seasoning, technical and otherwise on my end, and maybe Frank will have to defend for once a truly mediocre career. Right after the filing deadline I'll show anybody who is willing to listen, true head spinning inconsistencies in Franks voting record. If I win the primary, and I'm correct about what I'd go so far and call his voting perfidy, he might not glide so easily to his 9th victory, although he will win; I'm not stupid, just disgusted.. And one more victory by Frank will make it 6 more years total then he originally promised he'd serve when he first ran for Congress in 1994 and sold us on term limits as a way to keep up legislatures from stagnating...how's that for irony??!! See that easy salvo? Pray for me folks I'm going to need it.
If a Democrat beats Congressman Frank LoBiondo in this November's election, it won't be State Senator Jeff Van Drew doing it. Van Drew has confirmed to Coastal Broadcasting that he will not be running against LoBiondo in this November's election. The State Senator will be up for reelection 2011, along with Assemblyman Nelson Albano and Matt Milam. Cape May Councilman David Kurkowski ran against LoBiondo in 2008, in the Republican's most recent victory.
After he didn't pull the trigger in 2008 with all the wind at the back of Democrats, I wasn't expecting him to jump in this year given the current climate. He didn't close the door on a future run however:
"I'm not going to be running in this cycle," said Van Drew, D-Cape May, Cumberland, Atlantic.
While Van Drew will not run, Egg Harbor Township resident George Sakura says he plans to run. He hasn't spoken to the Atlantic County Chair about his run yet and says he plans on running not against LoBiondo, but against the idea of lobbyists running the country. We will have to see if anyone else steps forward to challenge for the Democrats and if he gets anyone running against him from the right in the primary as well.
The DNC announced the other day that they will target Congressmen Lance and Lobiondo as part of their effort to focus on the group of 32 House Republicans who opposed the healthcare bill that are in Congressional Districts won by President Obama in 2008:
Through this campaign, the DNC will send a message to Republicans who have reflexively said no to health insurance reform by urging them to do the right thing and support reform when it comes to the House again for a final vote. The campaign will include press releases, Op-Eds and letters to the editor, local events and will leverage the energy and enthusiasm of the DNC's grassroots supporters and its email list in holding these members accountable for their vote. The effort may also include paid advertising. DNC National Press Secretary Hari Sevugan released the following statement on the effort:
"You would think a Member of Congress should think twice about voting against health insurance reform that their families and small businesses so desperately need and want. But you have to think to vote against health insurance reform in a Congressional District won by President Obama just a year ago could be a political death knell at a time when Americans are clamoring for solutions to vexing issues like health care," said Sevugan. "These members not only represent districts that voted for President Obama, but also where health insurance reform, as in the rest of the country, is badly needed and where passing it will be politically popular. Some on the very far right wing would have people believe that voting for health insurance reform is a mistake politically - when the truth is that any Republican who votes against reform, especially those from districts won by the President, will undoubtedly place themselves in real political peril."
We've focused here at Blue Jersey a good deal of a attention and effort on getting the people in our own party on board with healthcare reform, but the DNC is taking a look at the other side of the aisle and lining up their targets for the next election based on what they see. In separate releases, the DNC noted that President Obama received 54% of the vote in Congressman LoBiondo's district and didn't give a percentage in Lance's district, but pointed to the President's victory. In fact, they and Organizing for America started putting out those releases hitting Lance and LoBiondo immediately following the vote on Saturday night. Congressman LoBiondo's spokesman had a simple, short response to the targeting:
Asked about the DNC's targeting of LoBiondo, Galanes asked, "Are they targeting John Adler? ... Just curious."
Are we in Congress or pre-school? A bad vote by Johnny doesn't excuse Franky from doing the right thing by his people.
Today's withdrawal by Dede Scozzafava in the NY23 special election to Congress is an important milestone. In her statement, she says "It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support." It's a polite way of noting that the far-right conservatives -- mostly outside the district -- have successfully purged her for perceived disloyalty to conservatism.
This must be a very unwelcome development for Frank LoBiondo. To be sure, he's "pro-life" and part of the Gingrich's Revolutionary Class of 1994, so he has right-wing credentials she doesn't. But his occasional moderate votes are increasingly unwelcome to conservatives both inside and outside of Congress. His vote in favor of the energy bill earned him attacks nationwide by outraged conservatives. There's many who would love to get rid of him.
Now, LoBiondo, unlike Scozzafava, has lots of money and the advantage of incumbency. It's now possible to imagine a successful challenge to him, but it's extremely unlikely. But today we see one more step down a road along which moderate Republicanism is extinguished.
To prohibit the Federal Government from awarding contracts, grants, or other agreements to, providing any other Federal funds to, or engaging in activities that promote certain indicted organizations.
Now, Frank LoBiondo's no dummy. He knows that crooked contractors won't give up their money easily. That's why he and his Republican friends chose the name "Defund ACORN Act," to throw everyone off the scent. You see, even if ACORN stole every cent it was granted in the last decade, it wouldn't even make the top thirty list of contractor misconduct. And, as Lobiondo and we all know after the AGI bonus outrage, a Bill of Attainder aimed at punishing specific people or companies is unconstitutional. So who will LoBiondo defund with his new rules?
I'm sure my interpretation of LoBiondo's intentions is accurate. After all, it's not possible that Frank LoBiondo only cares about fraud by a non-profit that helps poor people of color?
"A government bureaucrat cannot get in the way between a patient and a doctor," he said. "The provisions are not cost effective and not best for the patient."
So the Congressman would like to get rid of Medicare too, because clearly the government runs that program. From Wikipedia:
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), a component of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), administers Medicare, Medicaid, the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP), and the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA). Along with the Departments of Labor and Treasury, CMS also implements the insurance reform provisions of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 (HIPAA). The Social Security Administration is responsible for determining Medicare eligibility and processing premium payments for the Medicare program.
I'm sure the seniors in his district will like that idea. The families that support him would love to lose their SCHIP insurance as well. And those low income supporters will jump at the opportunity to lose their medicaid. I'm sure that will really help our health care situation.
And why is a government bureaucrat so much worse than an insurance bureaucrat? If LoBiondo is so serious about what he's saying, let him introduce legislation to get rid of these programs. Otherwise, he should find another talking point to justify his opposition to covering people.
According to the Cook Report we have three districts that are ripe for the out-party, two for the Rs and one for the Ds. Every two years they put together a new analysis (find out the metrics elsewhere) of the Partisan Voting (PV) index of Congressional districts based on the last vote.
Last year the only ones that were close were NJ3 for John Adler, NJ2 for Frank Lobiondo, and NJ7 for Leonard Lance. The rest are pretty much out of reach barring a live goat or a dead boy.
Frank Lobiondo must be getting dizzy form the circles he is running in. He's trying to figure out reasons he opposes the stimulus, while still looking like he supports everyone. He can't even call it a stimulus according to the headline of his latest press release:
LoBiondo Votes Against So-Called "Stimulus" Bill
Ah, now it's a so-called stimulus. Well lets see his reason for opposing the compromise:
"Make no mistake, this legislation is considerably weaker in its support to New Jersey's transportation needs than the original House-passed bill."
Ok, so he showed loyalty to his House colleagues and opposed the bill that was changed too much, right? Hmm, then why did the Congressman oppose that bill too, if it was so good? Get out the dizzy bat, it's time for our next spin:
Reduction in Medicaid Funding ? While providing a boost to Medicaid funding to the states, which LoBiondo supports, the House-Senate compromise reduced the overall funding levels from the original House-passed bill and changed the disbursement formula to the states which translates into a significant reduction in federal dollars to New Jersey despite the fact that it has high unemployment
Again back to this magical house bill he couldn't bring himself to support. Round and round we go:
Limited "Buy American" Provisions - The intention of the economic stimulus package is to create jobs in America, however, the weakened "Buy American" provisions now allow federal funding recipients to purchase over $300 billion worth of products not made in America. Only U.S. steel and federal/military uniforms are covered under the "Buy American" provisions in the House-Senate compromise.
Funny, he opposed the stronger "Buy American" provisions too. So it seems like he is with the rest of his party opposing any Buy American provisions, while trying to take credit for supporting them. And finally, he hitches his wagon to a popular president:
"The President is right to call for an economic stimulus package that will immediately and positively benefit struggling families and our nation?s economy," concluded LoBiondo. "Congress should have and could have created a true economic stimulus that would create millions of new jobs without saddling the taxpayers with excessive, wasteful federal spending. Today, Congress failed the American people."
That's right, it's Congress who failed, not Frank LoBiondo. Because they were so successful when his party was running the show of course. Either way, for Frank LoBiondo to try and act like all Congress had to do was put the House bill, which he already opposed, up for another vote and it would receive his support is laughable. Beware of Republicans trying to take credit for legislation they opposed.
Before the Professor and Maryann got their due in the Gilligan's Island theme song, they were known collectively as "the rest." And that's about how some of NJ's House races, and the Senate race, must have felt this year.
With the Obama campaign sucking up so much of the oxygen (and money, and energy, and ultimately the very PA-bound volunteers themselves), most of what was left over was focused on the "hot" races in NJ-3, NJ-5, and NJ-7. Like so often in the past, if you weren't running in one of the hot races, then you found yourself with scant attention being paid to your campaign.
In the case of Senator Lautenberg, and our 7 Democratic House incumbents, no news was good news. New Jersey's voters delivered a solid double-digit win to its senior Senator, and sent the Magnificent 7 back to Washington with an average margin of victory of over 40%. But for Congressional Challengers in NJ-2, NJ-4, and NJ-11, it was a different story altogether.
We look at each of these races in more detail below the fold.
It's at best a small moral victory for Dave Kurkowski's campaign, but 100% of precincts reporting Frank LoBiondo has won 59-39. That is LoBiondo's worst performance as a Congressman. Since the final poll was
LoBiondo 59 Kurkowski 29 and the September poll was LoBiondo 62 Kurkowski 26, Kurkowski and his campaign can also be proud that they won over the undecideds. Congratulations to the campaign.
Use this handy-dandy form to post your winners in the NJ races. Winner gets $7 in monopoly money from the old set in their closest. Mine are after the jump.
We know very little about what is happening on the ground in our Congressional Races because there are only a few scientific polls of public opinion. The media outlets that deserve praise are Gannett New Jersey, The Press of Atlantic City, and Daily Kos. Not a single local TV station has sponsored a poll in these exciting races, once again demonstrating our sad situation as the unwanted stepchild of New York and Philadelphia. We also have a handful of internal polls from the DCCC and RNCC which should be taken with a grain of salt, because they only release polls that "look good." Also, the polls are typically only 400 likely voters, so the margin of error (MoE) is large.
Incumbent Republican Scott Garrett is below 50%, always a bad sign for someone who should be well known, and challenger Dennis Shulman has gained six points in a month according to today's poll. Can he gain more by election day and pull off the upset? It's definitely possible.
Democrat John Adler has a lead according to the DCCC in the NJ3 open race, but what's striking here is that everyone is way below 50%. The public polls pointed toward Adler being slightly behind, but they're quite old now. Anyone can still win this race.
NJ3: Adler 43 Myers 35 MoE: 5% 10/15-10/16 DCCC
NJ3: Adler 38 Myers 34 MoE 4.9% 10/2-10/3 DCCC
NJ3: Adler 41 Myers 44. MoE: 4.7% 9/30-10/2 Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey
NJ3: Adler 37.1 Myers 38.5 MoE: 5% 9/18-9/20 Zogby for Press of Atlantic City and Stockton College
NJ3: Adler 29 Myers 33 MoE: 5.7% 9/8-9/9 McLaughlin Associates for Myers and RNCC
In the other open seat race, polling shows both Democrat Linda Stender and Republican Leonard Lance way below 50%, so anyone can win. Once again, the Democrats have recent evidence that Stender is ahead, but the older public poll is less encouraging.
Finally, a poll shows that incumbent Republican Frank LoBiondo once again winning big (unless something has happened in the last month.)
NJ2: Kurkowski 26 LoBiondo 62 MoE: 5% 9/18-9/20 Zogby for Press of Atlantic City and Stockton College
My Conclusion: If you have a chance to donate or volunteer for Adler, Shulman, or Stender you can really make a difference. We know that the undecideds will determine the winner of all three races.
the Philadelphia Inquirer never covered my race once. Never interviewed me. Never sent a candidate questionnaire. Never responded to any of dozens of press releases. Purports to oppose the Bush tax cuts, the war, the bankrupcy bill, homophobia, and the Christian Right. But endorsed Chris Smith. This is the state of journalism today. They endorsed someone without even interviewing by paper or in person his opponent."
Having our news dominated by Philadelphia and New York media organizations that don't care about us is one of the many structural problems of New Jersey politics. Reading the quote above reminded me, though, that I've been meaning to thank the Press of Atlantic City for actually covering the NJ2 Congressional Race year. Besides commissioning a poll of the 2nd district race, here's a selection of articles in which the Press (mainly the reporter Daniel Wash) actually covers the candidates regularly:
Now in my local paper, there is usually only a couple of articles covering the incumbent and the challengers. Here we see regular press coverage, which is essential to an informed citizenry.
"Mr. LoBiondo has not responded to a single one of the numerous and specific issues I raised yesterday. He did not deny that he has broken his contract with the voters," Kurkowski said. "He did not deny that his record has led to financial ruin, record deficit spending, a tanking economy, or a failed foreign policy that has cost this great nation its standing in the world- all of this is in direct conflict with the "Contract" he signed 14 years ago. He cannot refute anything I have said. He cannot argue with the facts. He has broken his contract - and should thus be fired."
"There's no point in my mucking up the debate dais at the next debate," Stein wrote The Press of Atlantic City in a letter Wednesday, "which is precisely why Mr. LoBiondo saw fit to personally shake my hand and invite me to the next round, even though I've criticized him severely in my Web site and attempted to do so again on Tuesday night."
