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Rating How Competitive New Jersey Congressional Districts Are: Nate Silver's PPI Index

by: Hopeful

Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 12:53:57 PM EDT

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com has just introduced his new "Partisan Propensity Index" (PPI). If you've been following elections closely, you're probably already familiar with the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) from Cook, and similar statistics from Swing State Project. Cook's idea is to look at how each Congressional District voted for President compared to the nationwide average. So, for example, the NJ5 district (Garrett's) is rated R+7, meaning it voted 7 points more Republican than nationwide, while NJ13 (Sire's) is rated D+21. You can see why Democrats had such a hard time even with a good candidate against Garrett, and why Republicans didn't seriously contest NJ13 when Menendez left it. Unlike Congressional races, where often one candidate is hardly covered in the news and has hardly any campaign budget, the two party's Presidential candidates are well known. The PVI index is widely used to identify competitive districts.  

Here's Silver's idea:

Are there any systematic differences in the ways that votes tend to fall for the Congress, as opposed to the Presidency? Are certain districts better or worse for Democrats, or Republicans, than PVI alone would suggest?

It turns out that there's one other factor which is fairly useful to look at, which is socioeconomic status. Relative to how they do for the Presidency, Democrats are somewhat more likely to win races for Congress in poorer districts, and somewhat more likely to lose them in wealthier ones. Another way to put this is that a split ticket of Republican for President, Democrat for Congress is more likely to occur in a poor district, whereas a split ticket of Democrat for President, Republican for Congress is more likely to occur in a wealthy one.

Click through for the statistical analysis he uses. Silver expresses his PPI index as the chance for Democrats to win an open seat in an average election cycle, based solely on two factors: the recent Presidential Vote and the percentage of the population with incomes under $25,000/yr.  Here are the results for New Jersey:

DistrictNamePVIPPI
NJ11FrelinhguysenR+7 2.5%
NJ5 Garrett R+7 3.2%
NJ4 SmithR+6 10.9%
NJ7 Lance R+3 13.9%
NJ3 Adler R+1 27.9%
NJ12 Holt D+5 62.9%
NJ2 LoBiondo D+1 66.0%
NJ6 Pallone D+8 85.2%
NJ9 Rothman D+9 88.8%
NJ8 Pascrell D+10 96.6%
NJ1 Andrews D+12 97.0%
NJ13 Sires D+21 99.95%
NJ10 Payne D+33 99.998%

The main lesson, if you take this ratings seriously, is that New Jersey's wealth makes the battleground Congressional districts lean Republican compared to how they vote at the Presidential level. In many states, the R+3 and even the R+7 districts have a great chance of going Democratic at the Congressional level, but here NJ5 and NJ7 are actually quite unfavorable, and should vote for the House like R+14 districts in the rest of the country. When we evaluate how our candidates did, it's worth keeping this effect in mind.

Frank LoBiondo's district is the poorest in New Jersey, and by this measure is slightly better for Democrats than Holt's district, but we are stuck with the echo of 1994. In case it's not obvious, being an incumbent matters, scandals matter, and cycles can be more or less Republican than the average cycle, and you should always remember that the most likely outcome doesn't always happen. All of our 2010 races have incumbents so the percentages definitely do not apply. Also, this is the last election in the current districts.

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Ask Congressman Pallone.....

by: Adam L aka clammyc

Thu Apr 08, 2010 at 02:30:00 PM EDT

When it comes to using online technology in communicating with constituents, (Blue Jersey community member) Congressman Pallone has never been shy about trying new things.

Previously, he held a Twitter Town Hall on health care reform, where there were some very good questions and active participation.

Now, the Congressman is trying something a bit different - using Google Moderator to solicit feedback and debate policy proposals.  According to the description the Congressman posted:

Going back to my time as a Long Branch City Councilman, I've always believed it was important to give my constituents a direct line to communicate their questions, concerns, and thoughts. Technology is revolutionizing how we interact, and as the Congressman for New Jersey's 6th District, I want to use these new tools to hear directly from you.

The internet opens up new opportunities to solicit input, debate policy proposals, and raise new ideas. Using the Google Moderator application and YouTube, I want to hear directly from you, and at the end of each month I'll make a web video directly answering your questions.

The issues will change from month-to-month. I might be seeking input on questions you want asked to a witness testifying in front of my Health Subcommittee. You could want updates on the financial regulation reform and what it will mean to consumers. Or what I know about the progress being made in Afghanistan. Some months I'll ask specifically about your thoughts or questions on a certain topic; other months it will be open ended.

The end game to this new idea for interaction is to create a more open, transparent dialogue. As a Congressman I serve the people, and want to hear your input. My fight against the special interests and lobbyists is an everyday battle and I want to make sure my most ardent supporters - progressives - have a vehicle to give me their opinions and thoughts.

So.....what do you think?  Send the Congressman a question or comment - its just another way to communicate directly.

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Frank Pallone on Health Care Reform

by: Hopeful

Thu Oct 29, 2009 at 02:43:13 PM EDT

This morning Nancy Pelosi released the health care reform bill that the full House of Representatives will consider. Congressman Frank Pallone (NJ6) put out this statement:

"This is history in the making for health care in America," said Congressman Frank Pallone, Jr., a key author. "Once these reforms are enacted, every American will be able to take comfort in the knowledge they will have access to affordable health care and that insurance coverage  won't be denied or taken away. Good health care is a basic need shared by all Americans, this will make it a basic right for everyone."

I had the chance to join Pallone's conference call for the media this afternoon. The messages I took away were:

Pallone is happy with this bill, says it refects for the most part the bil passed by his Energy and Commerce committee.  When asked what disappoints him, he says "nothing."

He emphasizes that many aspects of reform will take effect immediately. In particular, rescissions, denial of pre-existing coonditions, and  lifetime limits on coverage will be banned. He raised the point that some (certainly not all) of the protections exist in New Jersey state law already, but insurers will find it harder to evade federal law as they now do state law.

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Leading By Listening

by: Congressman Frank Pallone

Mon Aug 24, 2009 at 12:28:29 PM EDT

I'm planning to be at both of these Town Halls. Tonight I'll be there with nyceve who writes on health care for Daily Kos, and Jonathan Tasini. We'll all be there on the reform side. I hope to see some of you from the Blue Jersey community, too. If you see us, please come by and let us know what's on your mind. - - - promoted from the diaries by Rosi Efthim

Since I first went to Congress some 20 years ago, I've always made a point of coming home from Capitol Hill to listen to my constituents' concerns and brief them on the work I've been doing on their behalf.  Despite the well-coordinated campaign by those obstructionists intent on derailing progressive change in Washington, this year will be no different.  So in case you haven't heard, I'm hosting town meetings tonight and tomorrow here in my district.

Tonight, Monday, August 24 from 7:00 - 9:00 PM
Piscataway Municipal Building
455 Hoes Lane, Piscataway

Tuesday, August 25 from 7:00 - 9:00 PM
Red Bank Middle School
101 Harding Road, Red Bank

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ACTION: "Whipping the public option" - Frank Pallone Jr. (NJ-6)

by: Adam L aka clammyc

Tue Jul 21, 2009 at 10:43:42 AM EDT

Recently, I posted a diary that outlines an initiative we are undertaking here at Blue Jersey with respect to the upcoming health care legislation as it relates to the public option.  While most of the NJ Congressional delegation supports a public option, only Rush Holt and Donald Payne have committed to NOT SUPPORT a bill that did not have a public option.  And, as I said in that diary, as well as on Blue Jersey Radio last week, that is why we here at Blue Jersey are going to ask you - the Blue Jersey community - to help whip our fine Representatives into shape.

We will be focusing on each of the six other NJ House Democrats and then probably the three republicans (LoBiondo, Lance, Smith), and will go in order of District.  We did a diary on Rep. Rob Andrews (NJ-1) last week, and another yesterday focusing on Rep. John Adler (NJ-3) (if you missed them, please read them and take action there as well).  Today's focus is on Rep. Frank Pallone, Jr. (NJ-6).  

We are also coordinating this effort with DFA-NJ, and with your participation, this could be a great way to show how the progressive community in NJ can work together to accomplish great things.  Before I get into it though, I have one request:   Please go to this diary and read the "rules" in terms of some general requests for when you call the Representatives.

What we need you to do

Rep. Pallone's contact information is below:

DC Phone:202-225-4671
DC Fax: 202-225-9665

Please call his office and thank him support for a strong public option and for "Standing with Dr. Dean" on health care reform.  Most importantly, since Rep. Pallone is a strong supporter of REAL heath care reform, and has more of a hand in crafting whatever bill gets passed in reconciliation than most, if not all of the other NJ Representatives, he understands what is at stake here.  Therefore, it is important to make sure that he would not only commit to vote against a watered down bill that may ultimately be produced in reconciliation that will either (1) not include a strong public option (as outlined in either HR 676 or the current House bill) or (2) will include a "trigger", but also to do all that he can to make sure that the ultimate bill includes a strong public option.  A "strong public option" includes the following:

  • available nationwide;
  • on day one
  • and accountable to Congress and the voters

Please report your findings in the comments section below.  Additionally, FireDogLake has a "whip tool" that you can fill out with the applicable information, if you are able to get anything definitive (either good, bad or neutral).  Also, please get the name and title (and whatever other applicable information) from whomever you speak to.

A little bit about Representative Frank Pallone, Jr.

Rep. Pallone was elected to Congress in 1988 and is on the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, where he is Chairman of the Subcommittee on Health. He also serves on the House Committee on Natural Resources, and sits on a number of subcommittees for each of these Committees.  His House Committee is one of those responsible for the current House health care bill, and he, along with Rep. Andrews, is a cosponsor of the bill.

Rep. Pallone is a solid friend of and contributor to the Blue Jersey community, and just last month posted at Blue Jersey and Daily Kos about the importance of a public option.  He is also one of 13 members of the NJ Congressional delegation (everyone except for Rodney Frelinghuysen and Scott Garrett) who have expressed support for a public option, and is also noted as supporting a public option on the Stand With Dr. Dean website.
***************************

And while you are calling, if you could also call Representative Rob Andrews (DC Phone: 202-225-6501) and Representative John Adler (DC Phone:202-225-4765) if you missed the previous diaries, and report the responses at this link for Andrews and this link for Adler, that would be doubly great.

Thanks so much and we really appreciate your help and participation.  I am sure the hundreds of thousands of uninsured and underinsured New Jerseyans thank you even more.

***************************

Our next diary will focus on Representative Bill Pascrell, Jr. (NJ-8).

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Unprecedented Campaign Begins in New Brunwick

by: empowernb

Fri Apr 10, 2009 at 02:42:08 PM EDT

DEMOCRATS FOR CHANGE is  a bold innovative new campaign against the powerful Democratic Party machinery here in New Brunswick...

PolitickerNJ: http://www.politickernj.com/ma...

NEW BRUNSWICK, NJ? Launching a bold grassroots electoral campaign of a magnitude not seen in decades, a diverse coalition of 50 New Brunswick residents hailing from all corners of the city filed petitions yesterday afternoon (Monday 4/6) to run for seats on the Middlesex County Democratic Committee in the upcoming June 2 election.

The candidates, running under the common slogan ?Democrats for Change," represent the full range of city neighborhoods in all five New Brunswick wards and include such notable residents as Thomas Peoples, leader of the Fourth Ward Crime Watch and Angela Salazar, 2002 New Brunswick High School valedictorian.

?Democrats for Change? candidates want each neighborhood to have representatives that will put the real-life concerns of their neighbors first on the city?s agenda.

Noting that current city leaders have grown aloof to the needs of residents and are unknown to most of the city, Thomas Peoples, candidate for committeeman in Ward 4, District 5 said: "There is no communication with the Councilpeople. They never come to the neighborhoods. The only way we can have change is if real people step up to represent that actually LIVE in all neighborhoods.?

Adam Gold, a Rutgers graduate and candidate for committeeman in Ward 6, District 6 added: ?I just want people to be able to answer a simple question: Who is representing you??

?Democrats for Change? slate plan to address citywide issues that impact all residents such as the lack of representation for many constituencies in the city (by supporting ward-based elections) and the need to improve the city?s schools and to make them more accountable (with an elected school board).  Additionally, candidates plan to tackle specific issues impacting their neighborhoods such as improving street cleaning, alleviating parking and transportation problems, offering greater access to affordable and safe housing, expanding and improving city parks, and providing activities and programs for local youth.

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Let's Make Health Care Work for NJ

by: Congressman Frank Pallone

Wed Mar 25, 2009 at 04:00:00 PM EDT

Promoted by Jason Springer

Last week I stood on the steps of the Statehouse in Trenton to launch a state-focused initiative to give the people of New Jersey an active role in the Congressional efforts to reform our nation's broken health care system.  I want to Make Health Care Work For New Jersey, and I want to get everyone involved in the reform process.  

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Thank you, Congressman Pallone

by: vincent solomeno

Thu Jan 15, 2009 at 10:41:33 AM EST

"The moral test of government is how that government treats those who are in the dawn of life, the children; those who are in the twilight of life, the elderly; and those who are in the shadows of life, the sick, the needy and the handicapped."
- Vice President Hubert Humphrey

In Washington, Congressman Frank Pallone (NJ-6) is fighting for the progressive agenda.  On Wednesday the House of Representatives approved, by a 289 to 139 margin, a record expansion of the State Childrens Health Insurance Program (SCHIP).  Capitol Hill watchers expect the bill to easily pass through the Senate and reach President-Elect Obama's desk within days of his inauguration.  In addition to reauthorizing a program that presently covers seven million children, yesterday's expansion will provide four million more with access to basic medical care.

This victory has been long coming.  Both Democrats and a minority of Republicans attempted in the previous Congress to pass similar legislation, only to have their work vetoed twice by a President more interested in providing corporate welfare than extending health care to the children of the poor.  

New Jerseyans should take pride in the knowledge that Congressman Pallone has led the House's efforts toward passage of the expansion.  As Chair of the Energy and Commerce Health Subcommittee, he helped draft the legislation and went to the floor to shepherd it through to final approval.  Pallone's work is consistent with his progressive principles and a reflection of his long held commitment to providing access to health care for all Americans.

The child health bill provides $32 billion to insure a total of 11 million children whose families lack the resources to pay for preventative and emergency care.  Moreover, the legislation removes the discriminatory clause that excluded the children of legal immigrants - first generation Americans - from coverage.

With the economy entering recession, more than 2.6 million people lost their job last year alone - the highest one year loss since 1945.  Experts estimate that for every 1 percent increase in the number of jobless, 1.5 million people lose health coverage.  47 million Americans are uninsured. Sadly, 9 million are children, and according to a recent report, 273,000 of them are from New Jersey.

Thanks in large measure to the work of Congressman Pallone, our country is one step closer to reducing that number.  In doing so, we guarantee access to basic medical care for those who need it the most: our children.

NY Times: House Votes to Expand Children's Health Care

Press Release: House Democrats Introduce Legislation To Expand Health Care Coverage to Millions of Children

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Come To Somerset County On Election Day

by: nathanrudy

Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 08:34:58 AM EDT

I am asking you to take Election Day off from work and come to Somerset County to make this election as painful as possible for the Republican bosses.  We can win this county for Barack Obama and put some serious dents in the Republican hold here.

Just last month Somerset's registration advantage moved from the GOP to the Democrats, we have awesome candidates for Freeholder in Doug Singleterry and Cecilia Xie Birge, have four different Congressional races (Pallone, Holt, Wyka and Stender), and candidates running in just about every town.  This is an opportunity we haven't seen in a long time, and we need your help to make it happen.

We will be working out of Bridgewater (Martinsville), Hillsborough, Montgomery and maybe one other town but our goal is to reach every single district in the county at least once.  We need you to give us a few hours to make this happen.  

This is an amazing opportunity to put NJ7 in the Democrats' pocket, elect Democratic Freeholders in Somerset for the first time since 1979, take some of the wind out of Rodney Frelinghuysen, and win control of at least four towns.

We need challengers at the polls, van drivers for our volunteers, people to go door-to-door to our voters reminding them to get to the polls, and others to staff the staging areas.  Anyone 16 years or older can volunteer on election day and make a real difference.

If you can give us one, two, three, four or eight hours on election day, please give me a call at (908) 561-6387 or e-mail me at nathanrudy@gmail.com .

If you can't come to Somerset, please be sure to volunteer in your home town or county.  The more workers we have the more votes we'll get!

Let's win on November 4 up and down the ticket.

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McCleod Uses Chris Christie to Dishonestly Attack Pallone

by: huntsu

Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 06:59:42 AM EDT

The Republicans actually have a candidate in NJ6 to run against Frank Pallone, former Holmdel and Keyport Municipal Court Judge Robert McCleod.  It doesn't seem like much of a challenge -- on his website the link to "What's Wrong With Frank Pallone" comes up 404 and all the information in on Word documents -- he has the great Republican ability to twist facts to the breaking point and use Chris Christie politically.

What?  Use Chris Christie politically?  How is that possible when Christie is such a non-partisan crusader against fraud and corruption?

Anyway.  Back to McCleod.  Apparently he has decided to pretend that Chris Christie impaneled a grand jury just for Frank Pallone to investigate his connections to the health care industry.  Here's what he wrote in a "memo":

Attorney Chris Christie impaneled a federal grand jury to investigate whether Pallone had been the beneficiary of improper campaign finance actions by officials at UMDNJ.

The grand jury was impaneled to investigate problems at UMDNJ, not to investigate Pallone.  In fact, according to the article McCleod points to as the source for his attack, it was not Pallone who was investigated but a lobbyist who raised money for Pallone.  Pallone was not a target at all, much less the reason the grand jury was impaneled.

In a less cynical era we'd call it a lie, but today it is spin.  

McCleod takes it a step further, stating as fact his own guesswork based on his own false interpretation of the facts:

To ward off any further action by this grand jury Pallone commenced his pattern of counterattacks on Christie and later John Ashcroft. "The Jersey Boys," The American Spectator, Washington Prowler, January 14, 2008.

There is no evidence, or even suggestion, in the article referenced, that Pallone went after the $50 million no-bid contract Christie gave Ashcroft as an effort to protect himself.  It would have been stupid to draw attention to himself and piss off Christie, but he did it anyway.  McCleod made up the accusation out of whole cloth, then attributed it to a third party to make it look real.

And to make it all perfect, McCleod decides to play the gay card.  This one is really pretty funny:

Besides enriching himself with contributions Pallone is doing the bidding of Rep. John Conyers, Jr., Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, and another big recipient of Stryker family money. The Stryker family is also a big contributor to the Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund, a cause close to Pallone's heart, or another body part.

This is the level of discourse we get from the New Jersey Republicans?  This is the kind of person who gets to be a municipal judge?  Goodness gracious.

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Third Quarter Cash on Hand for Democrats

by: Hopeful

Mon Oct 15, 2007 at 05:59:18 PM EDT

Cash on Hand from the FEC quarterly filings:

Rob Andrews (NJ1)$2,429,899
Rush Holt (NJ12)$623,200
Frank Pallone (NJ6)$3,105,223
Bill Pascrell (NJ8)$1,031,440
Don Payne (NJ10)$751,399
Steve Rothman (NJ9)$1,838,631
Albio Sires (NJ13)$132,605

Your politics 101 quiz:  Which of these Congressmen is thinking of running for the U.S. Senate?

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Good coverage of our rally at Pallone's office & meeting w/Pallone

by: kwilkinson

Mon Feb 26, 2007 at 07:26:21 PM EST

This is the first time The Home News has come out for a MoveOn (& peace group) petition/letter delivery at a congressional office (at least of the ones I've been to in Central Jersey).  The picture took up most of the above the fold front page of the 'local' section.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Pallone wasn't happy that the article didn't mention that he had voted against the war or that he voted against the previous supplemental spending for the war, but the upside is that it may spur him to write an OpEd.

WAR'S END DEMANDED

Protesters meet at Pallone's New Bruns. office

NEW BRUNSWICK - About 20 members of various anti-war groups gathered in the Church Street office of Rep. Frank Pallone, D-6th Dist., Thursday afternoon to rally for an end to the war in Iraq. Group members also said they seek a de-escalation of the war of words with Iran.

The constituents' one-hour session with Pallone officials - equal parts teach-in, lobbying effort and critique of elected officials - also made clear they want Pallone to vote against President Bush's request for a $93 billion appropriation to help fund the war in Iraq.

"We need true leaders that are going to say "no' to this president and this war," one protester said.

The group also expressed its misgiving with what some characterized as war profiteering and with poor conditions at Walter Reed Army Medical Center in Washington, D.C., where wounded troops returning from war are treated.

Pallone was in Trenton Thursday to attend Gov. Jon S. Corzine's budget speech. Pallone, however, is scheduled to meet with ... the Central Jersey Coalition to End the War...

The Central Jersey Coalition Against Endless War, US Labor Against the War, Monmouth Co. Dem for America and Monmouth Co. Greens (about 8 of us) met with Cong. Pallone last Friday.

Pallone is standing by his promise to not vote for the Supplemental (he has never voted for one in the past), even if there are conditions put on it, as Murtha intends to do.

He said Woolsey asks him often to sign on to her bill to end the war, HR 508.  His problem with it is that it has too much stuff in it.  He'd like a simpler bill and is signed on to Murtha's withdrawal plan, but he'll look at Woolsey again.  He appeared not to have heard the objection to Murtha's `over the horizon' concept - that the troops will be ready to go back in and probably will.

He again said he would look into Jones and DeFazio on requiring Bush to get authorization before attacking Iran. He agreed there is reason to worry about what the administration might do.  We discussed whether legislation following the Union of Concerned Scientists recommendation barring the US from using nuclear weapons could be initiated.

He is a co-sponsor of Rothman's condemnation of Ahmedinejad for holding the conference of holocaust deniers, which includes Bush-like language about Iran's uranium enrichment program and language defending Israel's right to defend itself.  He wasn't aware of how it feeds into administration rhetoric, but won't reverse his co-sponsorship.

The issue of depleted uranium was brought up. [CJC had previously asked the Congressman to sign on to the "Depleted Uranium Munitions Study Act of 2003" (HR 1483IH).]  There doesn't appear to be any current legislation regarding this issue.

He will consider drafting legislation that would go further towards undoing the Military Commissions Act.  He again said he wouldn't consider impeachment.

He said legislation on Katrina will be coming up in the next couple of weeks.

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Vote for 'Out Now' on Pallone's POLL

by: kwilkinson

Mon Dec 11, 2006 at 02:57:25 PM EST

Especially if you live in the 6th district, please vote in Pallone's Iraq withdrawal strategy poll

"Immediate withdrawal" is losing badly to "redeploy" and "stay the course."

Update:  On second thought, write or call and ask for a more sophisticated poll.  The phrasing of the options is overly simplistic and the detail on B, vs. the lack of detail - provisions for the safety of the troops as they are brought home - makes the poll questions skew toward a particular result.  Contacting the office, also allows one to make a clearer statement of constituent's views on withdrawal.

Results of Current Poll: What do you think is the best Iraq policy?
The last response was on 12-11-2006 14:36.

Answer (followed by Votes & Percentage):

A - Stay the course

2016  35.2%

B - Dramatically lessen the American footprint in Iraq by redeploying American troops, giving the responsibility of securing Iraq to the Iraqis.

2253  39.4%

C - An immediate withdrawal of US forces in Iraq

1380  24.1%

Total 5721

Discuss :: (1 Comments)

Where's Mike? We Know This Weekend!

by: blue7thpac

Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 09:31:51 AM EST

After six years of hiding and jiving, Mike Ferguson is finally sending out a public schedule of where he's going to be.  AND YOU CAN BE THERE TOO!

We have his bus schedule for through election day, and it is extensive since he is afraid he might lose his seat.  But you can show him -- just like in this video from the debate! -- that the voters are just not with him.

PLEASE GET PICTURES OF THE RALLIES.  Especially the ones with sparse attendance.  Send them to nathanrudy@gmail.com and we'll post the best ones.  Cell phone pictures are fine.  Video of his talks is good, too, especially when he is lying. 

The full schedule is after the jump. When we can find them, we've provided links to Google Maps.  Sometimes the maps aren't perfectly accurate and you'll have to drive up and down the street to find the "rally".

There's More... :: (4 Comments, 394 words in story)

Sy Hersh 'Watching Lebanon' & Pallone's Open House

by: kwilkinson

Wed Aug 16, 2006 at 02:45:56 PM EDT

Is anyone else freaking out about Seymour Hersh's latest New Yorker article, Watching Lebanon

According to a Middle East expert ... Israel had devised a plan for attacking Hezbollah - and shared it with Bush Administration officials - well before the July 12th kidnappings. "It's not that the Israelis had a trap that Hezbollah walked into," he said, "but there was a strong feeling in the White House that sooner or later the Israelis were going to do it."

The Middle East expert said that the Administration had several reasons for supporting the Israeli bombing campaign. Within the State Department, it was seen as a way to strengthen the Lebanese government so that it could assert its authority over the south of the country, much of which is controlled by Hezbollah. He went on, "The White House was more focussed on stripping Hezbollah of its missiles, because, if there was to be a military option against Iran's nuclear facilities, it had to get rid of the weapons that Hezbollah could use in a potential retaliation at Israel. Bush wanted both. Bush was going after Iran, as part of the Axis of Evil, and its nuclear sites, and he was interested in going after Hezbollah as part of his interest in democratization, with Lebanon as one of the crown jewels of Middle East democracy."

Administration officials denied that they knew of Israel's plan for the air war. The White House did not respond to a detailed list of questions...

"The Israelis told us it would be a cheap war with many benefits," a U.S. government consultant with close ties to Israel said. "Why oppose it? We'll be able to hunt down and bomb missiles, tunnels, and bunkers from the air. It would be a demo for Iran."

And guess who's behind it:

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April 15, 2006 News Roundup

by: mariel2036

Sat Apr 15, 2006 at 09:29:54 AM EDT

  • Politics NJ’s count of how races are going to swing is up. Currently the U.S. Senate race is listed in the “Toss Upâ€� category but with a chance of moving towards the “Leans Democraticâ€� column.

  • After switching from Democratic to Republican parties candidate for East Hanover Town Council, Philip Maenza , is still not fully accepted as a true GOP member by sitting council members. They feel that Maenza is running on the Republican ticked, not because his values have changed, but because he has a better chance of winning as a Republican in Morris County.

  • Staunch environmentalist, Congressman Frank Pallone (D-NJ6), is calling for expedited cleaning of PCBs in the Raritan River that have been harming fish and have the potential to harm humans as well. PCBs were outlawed and are now classified as a possible carcinogen that  can cause nervous system disorders.

  • The smoking ban went into effect at 12:01 this morning. No smoking in bars, racetracks, bowling alleys, clubs and concert halls are just some of the provisions of the ban. Sorry smokers, maybe now is a good time to quit, no?

  • Governor Corzine’s sales tax hike has hit a major speed bump. Legislators from both sides of the aisle are strongly opposing it, and now rumors have started that it may not have enough votes to pass through the State Senate.

    Happy Saturday!!!

  • Discuss :: (0 Comments)

    Meet the Candidates

    by: Juan Melli

    Mon Apr 10, 2006 at 07:08:10 PM EDT

    This is the most recent listing of candidates that have filed petitions for federal office. The first candidate listed in each category is the incumbent. The number after their names indicates the number of petition signatures submitted, and I also included the slogans of some of the candidates running without the party endorsement.

    US Senate:
        Bob Menendez (D) 8029
        James D. Kelly Jr (D) 1300
        Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R) 4202
        John P. Ginty (R) 1742

    House Districts
    1:  Rob Andrews (D)

    2:  Frank LoBiondo (R) 804
        Viola Thomas-Hughes (D) 298
        Henry David Marcus (D) 207 "Change the Course!"

    3:  Jim Saxton (R) 949
        Richard Sexton (D) 293

    4:  Chris Smith (R) 675
        Gary Schiavone (D) 310

    5:  Scott Garrett (R) 513
        Michael Cino (R) 300
        Paul Aronsohn (D) 495
        Camille M. Abate (D) 427 "A New Spine For Congress"

    6:  Frank Pallone Jr (D) 310
        Leigh-Ann Bellew (R) 278

    7:  Mike Ferguson (R) 896
        Linda Stender (D) 532

    8:  Bill Pascrell (D) 4301
        Jose Sandivol (R) 407

    9:  Steve Rothman (D) 1020
        Vincent Micco (R) 321

    10: Donald Payne (D) 1244
        Deshon Porter (D) 211

    11: Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) 699
        Tom Wyka (D) 332

    12: Rush Holt (D) 1216
        Joseph Sinagra (R) 225

    13: Special election for unexpired term
        Albio Sires (D) 530
        James Geron (D) 268

    13: For full term
        Albio Sires (D) 3229
        Joseph Vas (D) 594
        John Guarini (R) 255

    Discuss :: (4 Comments)

    Every NJ Congressional District Will Be Challenged

    by: Juan Melli

    Mon Apr 10, 2006 at 01:42:35 PM EDT

    Update 3 (A big one, so I'm posting it up top): There WILL be two Democratic challengers to Frank LoBiondo in NJ-2. Fairfield Township councilwoman Viola Thomas-Hughes and Henry David Marcus will compete in the primary. This now means that every Republican House member in New Jersey will face a challenger in November.

    According to the Division of Elections, Gary Schiavone has filed to challenge Chris Smith in the 4th Congressional district. With about two hours left until the filing deadline, no Democrat has filed in the 2nd yet to challenge LoBiondo.

    The GOP has failed to file challenges to Rob Andrews (NJ-1) and Donald Payne (NJ-10).

    Update 1: Donald Payne (NJ-10) will have a challenger in the primary, and Michael Cino has just filed to challenge Garrett in the primary. Assemblywoman Oadline Truitt (D) from the 28th legislative district will face a primary challenge.

    Update 2: (via politicsnj)

    Joe Vas filed petitions to run for the full 2-year term in the 13th district, but not for the Special Election.

    John Ginty filed petitions to seek the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate today.  Ginty filed with 1,742 signatures.

    James Kelly, a resident of a group home for the mentally disabled , filed as a U.S. Senate candidate in the primary against Bob Menendez.

    Discuss :: (10 Comments)

    BlueJersey Podcast - with Congressman Pallone

    by: Jeff Gardner

    Fri Feb 24, 2006 at 05:28:44 PM EST

    We're baaaaack! The latest installment of the BlueJersey.net Podcast is live and ready to download.


    We sat down with Congressman Frank Pallone to discuss taking back the House in 2006, the republican prescription drug disaster, why he's proud to be a democrat, and more, including - blast from the past - the Superfund! (Listen now)


    Pallone let his feelings be known on the corruption scandals rocking Washington:

    I really question whether the republican leadership is going to do ANYTHING about ethics reform.
    on appealing to the base:
    We HAVE to motivate our progressive voters, or we don't win.
    and even on marriage equality:
    I have no problem with gay marriage. I'm hopeful that the Supreme Court of New Jersey will actually say that it is constitutionally based and can't be prohibited.
    To listen now, click here.


    If you've already subscribed to our feed through iTunes, it should download for you next time you start the program. If you haven't already subscribed, you can subscribe here  

    Discuss :: (1 Comments)

    You get one question to ask Congressman Pallone - GO!

    by: Jeff Gardner

    Fri Feb 17, 2006 at 09:08:58 AM EST

    (one more time - promoted by jmelli)

    BlueJersey's podcast series soon will be continuing with our next guest, Rep. Frank Pallone, Jr. (NJ-6).

    Congressman Pallone has graciously agreed to sit down with me for a half-hour interview that will be recorded and available as a BlueJersey.net podcast. And you, dear reader, are invited to whisper your questions into my ears. Best questions will be included in the interview.

    What? You mean you haven't subscribed to the BlueJersey.net podcast yet? What are you waiting for? Subscribe!

    Discuss :: (5 Comments)
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