Poll: The 2010 Congressional Elections in New Jersey

by: Hopeful

Fri Mar 05, 2010 at 10:50:05 AM EST

Eagleton polled 886 registered voters, but the main differences is they did not push leaners, and they also gathered the results by who controlled each district by asking if they'd vote for the current Congressman or "challenger running against him." Note that this gave two (or three) sub-samples. So the results are:

In the statewide generic ballot by party, Democrats are at 33% and Republicans at 31%.  

In the five Republican districts, Republicans are at 40% and Democrats at 25%.

In the eight Democratic districts, Democrats are at 41% and Republicans at 22%.

As the pollster notes, "Nearly 20 percent do not know how they will vote, and 10 percent say they do not plan to vote at all." Of course, a lot more than 10% of registered voters will skip the election.

You might think 47-39 doesn't seem much like 33-31, but going back to the FDU poll, without leaners Democrats led 39-34. I don't think it is really too different from Eagleton. I personally suspect the "with leaners" sample gives a better view, because I don't believe so many voters are really persuadable.

Anyway, I think Professor Redlawsk has a pretty good quote summing it up:

"The overall picture statewide seems to suggest that Republicans are at parity with Democrats in 2010, but this is misleading," said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. "While the statewide vote may be close, it is less likely to be so in most congressional districts. We did not poll at the district level, and in the 3rd district Democrat John Adler is likely to face a very difficult challenge. Still, at the aggregate level incumbents of both parties start the year with an advantage over potential general election challengers."

It would be really interesting to get a poll of Adler's NJ3 district, but in truth it's too early to be definitive.

Quick Update: President Obama has 57-37 approve-disapprove on his job, and 56-31 for "general impression." Democrats in Congress are at 35-42 and Republicans at an even worse 25-48.  52% says Obama's change is happening "too slowly."

The sample has 55% claiming they voted for Obama and 31% claiming McCain which might argue some Republicans are missing. On the other hand, maybe they are in the 6% who claim they voted for someone else (Palin?), and furthermore, the sample also claims they voted 42-31 for Christie over Corzine which is a better margin for Republicans than reality. So it's probably just difficult to get people to say they voted for the unpopular loser.  

FDU Poll: Obama, Congress, Menendez, and Health Care Reform

by: Hopeful

Thu Mar 04, 2010 at 12:07:03 PM EST

First up, President Barack Obama is at a 53% job approval rating (an improvement on the sub-50 showing last time). Disapproval is at 38%, so the the net +15 matches the margin he beat McCain by in 2008. His numbers with independents are 53-33.

On the other hand, the right track/wrong track numbers for the country are at 38-52, hardly surprising with 10% unemployment, massive deficits, and victory-less wars.  

Democrats lead the generic ballot for U.S. Congress 47-39 with leaners. That doesn't exactly suggest many Democratic incumbents will be swept away, though I don't doubt NJ3 is a battlefield.

If the election were held today, Senator Bob Menendez would get 38%, a (hypothetical candidate) Tom Kean Jr  would get 39%, Someone else gets 6%. Not the numbers we'd like to see, but not unfamiliar either. The pollster notes that Menendez did worse with the subgroup that was asked about him closer to the questions about health care reforms.

Senator Menendez is at 29-25, favorable-unfavorable, and Senator Frank Lautenberg is at 42-29. The negative ads of 2006 have been forgotten as Kean Jr is at 28-11. Kean was at 33-32 at the end of the last campaign, so you can see that campaigns matter.

As for health care reform, the numbers are lousy but not disastrous, as you know if you follow it in national polls. 37% think they will be better off and 42% think they will be worse off if health care reform passes. On the other hand, for the "country as a whole," "better" leaads "worse" 45-40. No doubt the numbers are dragged down by strong Republican opposition, but the two sets for independents are 31-35 and 41-33. The numbers are very striking by race, because only 28% of "Whites" think they'll be better off. Overall, 35% say they'd advise their memver of Congress to vote for a health care reform bill, 40% against, and 25% don't know. That 25% is more Democrats and Independents, so they need to be won over, perhaps by the reality of the bill helping them. (Cough, cough, too bad some genius designed most of the benefits to start years from now.)

Rutgers-Eagleton Poll on the two Tea Parties

by: Hopeful

Wed Mar 03, 2010 at 09:30:00 AM EST

"We find that Republicans who favor the TEA Party movement are driven, at least in part, by an antipathy towards Obama which is simply less prevalent among Republicans who are not favorable toward the TEA Party,

In other words, the Tea Party's base is right-wingers who think Obama is a socialist, un-American, blah, blah, blah. The pollster didn't ask about Obama being a Muslim.

The more important conclusion is that there are really two groups involved:

GOP TEA Party movement supporters are clustered in the $50,000 to $100,000 income range and are somewhat older than the average New Jersey voter. They are also significantly more likely to be male, white, and to consider themselves born-again Christians. Democrats and independents favoring the TEA Party are more likely to have incomes under $50,000, are much younger, and less likely to be white males.

"There appear to be two demographic bases for the TEA Party movement," said Redlawsk. "One is a higher income, older, male, Republican, anti-Obama group. The other is a lower income, younger group who are not Republicans and who like Obama. These voters are attracted to the TEA Party because of worries about their own financial situation and feelings that something is wrong in America. With more than a quarter of New Jersey voters favorable towards the TEA Party, it is possible that the movement could have real impact on politics. The question is whether it can provide what both groups want at the same time. If the focus is on impacting the Republican Party, it may lose the 30 percent who are not Republicans. But to keep that group happy may require a focus that is much broader than Republican Party politics and an intense dislike of the Obama administration."

The first group won't possibly vote for Democrats and worrying about them is a waste of time, although I suppose the fact that 65% of Republican Tea Party supporters want government to do more for "middle class people" might mean I am wrong. The second group, though. can be reached and indeed many of them may vote for Obama in 2012. Communicating with them this year is important for Democrats. The President's otherwise admirable non-partisan, "there's not a liberal America and a conservative America" approach has let the conservatives and indeed the entire "Establishment" off the hook for the disaster they've led America into. Perhaps I should say partly off the hook. Republicans in Congress have only 25% favorable rating with 48% unfavorable. Democrats in Congress are at 35-42 and President Obama 56-31.  

Rutgers-Eagleton Poll on the Tea Party

by: Hopeful

Thu Feb 25, 2010 at 10:38:15 PM EST

The upshot is that this looks much more like a branch of the Republican Party than any real attempt to form a sustainable third party movement. In fact, Tea Party supporters in New Jersey are more likely to support the current two party system than are those who do not have a favorable view of the movement. Go figure!

They are also more likely to be in the upper half of income: "While only 18 percent of voters making less than $50,000 have a favorable view, 30 percent of those making more than $50,000 do."

Redlawsk speculates that since this is a group of Republicans who are mad at the Republican establishment, they might be more of a danger in the primaries than general elections. Personally I doubt anyone in New Jersey will face a serious primary challenge, but we'll see.

Poll: Obama still strong in New Jersey

by: Hopeful

Thu Feb 04, 2010 at 12:30:00 PM EST

Overall, 55% of New Jersey residents approve of the job President Obama is doing while 36% disapprove. This is better than the national average of 48% approve to 49% disapprove according to the Pollster.com website. The president garners approval from 83% of Democrats, 49% of independents, and just 15% of Republicans in the Garden State. Obama's job rating is down somewhat from the 59% approve to 29% disapprove numbers he received from Garden State voters in July 2009... The poll also found that Barack Obama as a person is viewed favorably by 61% of New Jerseyans and unfavorably by 26%.

Given such better scores, it seems unlikely that New Jersey will be a battleground at the Presidential level next time, though it should be noted that Obama probably does better among "adults" than 2010 or 2012 "likely voters." Republicans in Congress and Democrats score equally poorly in terms of "making the right decisions for the country's future." Still, if an incumbent can get the votes of those who have "just some" confidence in Congress he'd win overwhelmingly. New Jerseyans think the middle class (or for that matter, the poor and the wealthy) have not benefited much yet from Obama's policies so far, but Wall Street bankers have. If unemployment improves the way the stock market has those numbers will improve. That's "if."

New Monmouth Poll: Many prepare for pain and reserve judgement

by: Jason Springer

Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 08:14:37 AM EST

Chris Christie's initial job rating is generally positive - 33% approve to 15% disapprove - although 52% withhold opinion at this early stage. By comparison, the New Jersey legislature is viewed negatively - only 26% of the public approve of the job their representatives in Trenton are doing versus 46% who disapprove. These results are fairly consistent with the legislature's low job rating over the past two years.

The most important issue for voters during last year's gubernatorial campaign was taxes, especially property taxes. New Jerseyans continue to see this as a defining issue by which they will judge the success of a Christie administration. At the same time, they remain skeptical that taxes will actually come down. Specifically, 7-in-10 residents (71%) say they will be very upset with Governor Christie if property taxes remain high four years from now, another 18% would be somewhat upset and just 9% would not be upset by this.

However, only 4-in-10 New Jerseyans say it is likely (8% very and 34% somewhat) that the state will enact reforms to significantly lower property taxes in the next few years.

While 51% of Garden State residents would be very upset with the governor if he doesn't reduce state spending during his term, even more - 62% - would be very upset if school funding was cut. Perhaps a positive note for the governor in this finding is that both Republicans (53%) and independents (53%) are less likely than Democrats (77%) to be troubled by potential education cuts.

"It's important for Governor Christie to remember that New Jersey voters handed him a scalpel, not an axe. He needs to tread carefully where job cuts are concerned and have strong budget justifications for large numbers of layoffs. While the state unions may not be held in high regard, the public sympathizes with the average state worker who has a family to feed. If job cuts appear to be indiscriminate, it could hurt the governor in the court of public opinion," said Murray.

Poll: Gun owners actually support Lautenberg's gun control bill

by: Hopeful

Thu Dec 10, 2009 at 01:59:06 PM EST

Sen. Frank R. Lautenberg (D-NJ), a leader in the Senate on strengthening common-sense gun safety standards, today highlighted encouraging new poll results found in a national survey taken of gun owners, including National Rifle Association (NRA) members.

           "This revealing poll shows that a vast majority of responsible gun owners support efforts to keep guns out of the hands of dangerous criminals and terrorists," said Sen. Lautenberg.  "For too long, the special interest gun lobby has blocked efforts to close dangerous loopholes in our gun laws.  It is time to put the safety of the American people ahead of the NRA, which is clearly out of touch with its own members and must no longer be an impediment to common sense safety initiatives."

           The survey of 832 gun owners conducted by Dr. Frank Luntz found an alarming inconsistency between the interest of American gun owners and the NRA's agenda in Washington.

           The study found that an overwhelming 82 percent of NRA gun owners (and 86 percent of non-NRA gun-owners) support prohibiting people on the terrorist watch list from purchasing guns.  69 percent of NRA gun owners (and 85 percent of non-NRA gun owners)  support requiring that all gun sellers at gun shows conduct background checks for people purchasing guns.  90 percent of NRA gun owners (and 93 percent of non-NRA gun owners) agreed that the FBI should be able to access and keep information about gun purchases by terror suspects.    

Info, including the data and press release, on the poll is here.

New Jersey marriage equality views by religion

by: Hopeful

Thu Dec 10, 2009 at 10:24:03 AM EST

Despite opposition from the Catholic Church, New Jersey Catholics generally support legalizing gay marriage, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released today. Among Catholics, 48 percent support gay marriage, while 40 percent oppose and 12 percent are undecided. Protestants hold the opposite view, with only 34 percent supporting and 55 percent opposing gay marriage, and 11 percent undecided. Jewish respondents support gay marriage, 56 percent to 40 percent and 4 percent undecided, while those with no preference are the most supportive, at 85 percent to only 10 percent opposed with 5 percent undecided.

It turns out "non-evangelical protestants support gay marriage, 47% - 37%" but evangelical protestants are the group that oppose it strongly, 67% - 24%. The important of evangelical opposition is well known--for example, Nate Silver's model of voting on gay marriage bans is based on the percentage of white evangelical protestants. But I am always interested to see that Roman Catholics are far more socially liberal than the reactionary leadership that has cemented its hold on the church in the last two papacies.  

Quinnipiac poll on how to balance the budget

by: Hopeful

Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 12:17:58 PM EST

The most popular positions according to the poll would be to freeze state workers salaries, have furloughs or layoffs, and -- if it were necessary to raise taxes -- raise tolls and sales taxes. Voters want to protect education spending. But can you believe the voters? Those positions are also, of course, a  pretty good summary of Governor Corzine's policies and he is getting hammered with only 31% approval. The public even says "tax rebates" should be kept the same -- though whether they mean the same as after Corzine's cuts could be questioned, I suppose.

You might point to the layoff result that Quinnipiac boasted about, but for the reporters who only read the headlines, the statement "Voters Back Layoffs Alomist 2-1" is false, because the question getting 2-1 support was actually "To help balance the state budget do you support or oppose - layoffs or furloughs for state employees?" So sadly they only asked about existing policy rather than a new, controversial one. Still, there's no doubt that state workers find themselves in a very weak position in negotiations, with little support from the public and a real budget crisis.  I've heard that Christie has already asked the unions to take 24 furlough days next year.  

SUSA poll: Christie ahead, or Halloween/Baseball effect?

by: Hopeful

Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 01:32:32 PM EST

On Election Eve in New Jersey, with a New York City team and a Philadelphia team in the World Series, Republican Chris Christie may have slight late momentum in his bid to unseat incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted for WABC-TV. The candidates remain today within the theoretical margin of sampling error, as they have been in each of SurveyUSA's 5 tracking NJ polls. At the wire, Christie 45%, Corzine 42%. Interviews were conducted Friday 10/30/09 through Sunday 11/01/09. On 2 of the 3 nights, much of NJ was home watching local teams play in the World Series. And: 1 of the 3 nights was Halloween, when families with children are home in uniquely large numbers. As such, results of this survey should be interpreted cautiously: a narrow Corzine victory is not inconsistent with the data, but a narrow Christie win is more consistent with the data.

That last point is important because the margin of error is estimated to be 4.1%. Subgroups will be worse. SUSA continues to find that Corzine is leading the Vote By Mail group:

Those who have already voted favor Corzine. Corzine has votes banked. For Christie to be elected, he needs the voters who talk the Christie talk to walk the Christie walk on Election Day. The smaller the Election Day turnout, the more important Corzine's banked votes are. The larger the Election Day turnout, the more likely the Republicans are to take Trenton. On the other hand: President Obama campaigned for Corzine on Sunday. Most interviews for this survey were completed before TV accounts of the Obama visit were shown, and 100% of interviews were completed before Monday's newspapers were published with photos of Obama and Corzine.

The poll has 582 likely voters (out of 1000 adults.)  Corzine leads with women and Christie leads with men. Christie seems to be increasing with independent voters, which he obviously needs to do with so many more Democrats than Republicans.

Democracy Corp Poll has Corzine up by 4

by: Jason Springer

Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 12:59:38 PM EST

A new survey conducted for Stan Greenberg and James Carville's organization Democracy Corps shows a New Jersey gubernatorial race that remains very close, with Democratic Governor Jon Corzine holding a four-point edge over Republican Chris Christie among the electorate most likely to turn out on Election Day.  Corzine leads Christie 41 percent to 37 percent among these voters, with independent Chris Daggett receiving 15 percent of the vote.  Among a higher-turnout electorate, Corzine leads Christie 41 percent to 36 percent.[1] When Daggett voters are pushed to choose one of the two major party candidates, Corzine leads 47 to 41 percent.

There is a significant bloc of 8 percent of the electorate that remains undecided, which can still have an impact on the final margin in the race, especially considering the anti-incumbent mood in New Jersey and across the country.

3 point shift gives Corzine 43-41 lead in final Monmouth University/Gannett poll

by: Jason Springer

Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 12:33:11 PM EST

In polling conducted over the final weekend of this campaign, the Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll finds the race is still in a statistical no man's land, but that incumbent Jon Corzine now appears to have a razor thin 43% to 41% lead over challenger Chris Christie.  Independent Chris Daggett holds at 8%.  This marks a slight, albeit statistically insignificant, shift from the 43% to 42% nominal lead Christie held in polling conducted from Wednesday through Friday.

"This race is still as close as it can be.  It's possible that President Obama's visit boosted the governor's chances.  But it is also likely that some anti-Corzine voters are still unsure of casting their lot with Christie.  If the undecided vote breaks largely for the Republican, this race could be a squeaker," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

The poll also finds that about 6% of New Jersey voters have already cast their ballot by mail, similar to the percentage of mail ballots received in last year's presidential race.  For these ballots, Jon Corzine looks to have the decided advantage.  A majority of 53% of mail voters say they voted for the incumbent, compared to just 31% for Christie, 11% for Daggett and 5% for other candidates.

The poll found that Jon Corzine's job performance rating stands at 36% approve to 54% disapprove, which is basically unchanged from prior polls.  However, his personal rating has improved, now registering at 40% favorable to 44% unfavorable.   While still in net negative territory, this is better than the 39% to 49% personal rating the governor had last week.

Chris Christie's personal rating is a net positive 40% favorable to 38% unfavorable.  This is down slightly from last week's 44% to 36% rating.  It is also down significantly from the 50% favorable to 26% unfavorable rating he held back in July.

Chris Daggett's personal rating remains steady at 21% favorable to 21% unfavorable, with the majority (58%) of likely voters saying they never really formed an opinion of the independent candidate.

Quinnipiac poll has Christie by two

by: Hopeful

Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 07:39:08 AM EST

In the see-saw New Jersey Governor's race, Republican challenger Christopher Christie has 42 percent to Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine's 40 points, with 12 percent for independent candidate Christopher Daggett, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.  Six percent remain undecided...

     Among Daggett supporters, 38 percent say they might change their mind: 39 percent say Corzine is their second choice, while 29 percent say Christie is number two.

     Only 10 percent of Christie voters and 13 percent of Corzine backers say they might change their mind.

     Corzine leads 77 - 6 percent among Democratic likely voters, with 12 percent for Daggett.  Christie leads 78 - 10 percent among Republicans, with 9 percent for Daggett, and  47 - 32 percent among independent voters, with 17 percent for Daggett

Christie seems to be in the low 40s, and Corzine has never been able to break past a ceiling of 42-43. Here he is at 40. We know that Christie gets most Republicans and has a signficant lead with independents. Only a high Democratic turnout could push Corzine over the top.

Update 8:56AM: I don't want to be down. The current pollster.com trend indicator including this poll is 41.8% for Corzine, 41.8% for Christie. The race could not be any closer

PPP Poll: Christie leads

by: Hopeful

Sun Nov 01, 2009 at 11:21:21 PM EST

YouGov Poll: Corzine 43, Christie 41, Daggett 8

by: Hopeful

Sun Nov 01, 2009 at 01:55:41 PM EST

Although Barack Obama easily carried New Jersey in last year's Presidential election with 57% of the vote and remains relatively popular in the Garden state (with a 55% approval rating), Corzine loses many Obama voters, while Christie holds onto most of the McCain voters.

Obama has a 55% approval rating.

Why isn't this on the front page? Because YouGov doesn't do telephone polls, it does internet-based interviews. I have to join many others in viewing these online polls with suspicion.

Regardless, it's another indication of a very close race where your work may make a difference.

Monmouth Poll: "Christie, Corzine neck and neck as Daggett fades"

by: Hopeful

Sun Nov 01, 2009 at 01:03:04 AM EDT

Just days before selecting their next governor, New Jersey voters are clearly divided. The only sure bet from the latest Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll is that the winner will be either a Republican or a Democrat. As of Friday night, challenger Chris Christie held an insignificant one point lead over incumbent Jon Corzine among likely voters, 43% to 42%. Two weeks ago, the race was tied at 39% each. Independent Chris Daggett has faded to 8%, after reaching 14% in the previous poll.

Republican voters give 86% support to their party's nominee, compared to 6% for Corzine and 5% for Daggett. Democratic voters give 77% support to their party's nominee, compared to 11% for Christie and 9% for Daggett.

The Open Space bond leads 51-28.

Other details including approval rating, breakdowns by party, and analysis are in the full report (PDF).

Yet another poll

by: Hopeful

Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 04:12:51 PM EDT

What is worth checking out is the Shaftan poll analysis (PDF), which gives you a preview of the movement conservative's spin. Putting my cynical hat on, if Christie loses, the conservative Lonegan supporters can easily say "I told you so," and Shaftan has long been on record criticizing Christie, but what can he say if Christie wins?

The release tells us: Christie didn't run as enough of  a conservative but Corzine's ads made him into a conservative like Steve Lonegan that the right will be energized to support. So too, Obama's visit will backfire (you should perhaps not ask how a "poll" shows next week's reaction.) And of course Corzine's lack of positive ads don't leave voters with enough reason to pick him if they didn't like Christie. (Okay, I've made that argument one myself, though I know there are some positive ads) In short, next week's election is a victory for Steve Lonegan and a defeat for Barack Obama. (By the way, Democrats' ads won the primary for Christie too!) Shaftan argues that Christie's attack ads have weakened Daggett with conservatives and helped him with liberals. It's plausible, but his sample of Daggett voters is 341 x 0.08 = 27 people. Can you draw conclusions about subsets of a poll of 27 people? No.
 

Poll: "Nail Biter" as Corzine leads by one.

by: Hopeful

Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 12:18:41 PM EDT

A poll of 1,093 likely New Jersey voters finds incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine leading Republican challenger Chris Christie by one percentage point (40% to 39%) headed into next Tuesday's general election.

Support for independent challenger Chris Daggett sits at 14%.  Daggett has strong support among independent and unaffiliated voters (23%), but is also pulling support from the left (13% among Democrats) and the right (8% among Republicans).

This seems right in line with everyone else, and it's quite clear that we won't know beforehand who's going to win. (It's quite shameless for me to write "Corzine leads by one" with a margin of error of 3.) We can expect polls of the electorate on the final weekend. Quinnipiac will release another poll on Monday morning, PPP's will put one out last Sunday night, and no doubt others will try to measure what's happening.  

Daggett at 14% is a pretty consistent result for polls where he is offered as a choice. What will he actually get? No one knows.

FDU Poll: Corzine +1 (or -2, or +5)

by: Hopeful

Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 05:30:00 AM EDT

According to the most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind™, Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie continue in a close contest in the race for New Jersey governor, with Corzine holding a lead among likely voters by a statistically insignificant thread of 44% to 43%. Another 6% volunteer they will vote for independent Chris Daggett and 4% are undecided. "At this point, anyone who says their vote doesn't count is mistaken," said Peter Woolley, a political scientist and director of the poll. "And no one knows that better than the campaigns."

Now, after that question they ask "Now let me ask that question in a slightly different way... if the election were held today, who would you vote for in a race between Jon Corzine and Chris Christie and Chris Daggett?" (again with the names rotated.)  For half, they ask about Gary Steele instead of Daggett.

That gives two results: Corzine 39, Christie 41, Daggett 14 and Corzine 46, Christie 41, Steele 3. It's fun to think about, but as the sample sizes are cut in half and are the same people who answered the previous result I'm not sure if it tells us much, except that Daggett does better when mentioned.

It's a little amusing that 19% of people correctly identify Daggett as the candidate endorsed by the Star-Ledger, but 17% name Corzine. Daggett supporters tend to know about the endorsement, but which way does the causal connection run? In any case, only 18% haven't heard of Daggett, way down from 50% in FDU's October 6 poll.

The other indicators are in line with what we've seen before: Corzine is at 39-54 favorable-unfavorable. Christie is 41-44 favorable-unfavorable. Daggett is at 28-23. Corzine is at 37-52 job approval. Barack Obama is at 52-37 job approval.

Public Question 1 on open space bonds is at 52% yes, 33% no. The question uses the word "bonds" not "borrow." Every pollster that uses that wording finds the bonds being approved.

Another Poll: New Jersey Race Tied

by: Hopeful

Thu Oct 29, 2009 at 06:13:45 PM EDT